Americans won\u2019t get a total reprieve after China trade deal as effects of lost factory jobs, pricier goods linger<\/p>\n
Jessica MentonUSA TODAY<\/p>\n
Published Jan 15, 2020 <\/p>\n
Americans won\u2019t get much of a financial reprieve from a\u00a0limited trade deal signed with China on Wednesday, economists say, because while the truce helps consumers avoid the pain of further tariffs, it doesn’t erase all the earlier ones.<\/p>\n
The “Phase One” deal calls off President Trump\u2019s plan\u00a0to impose levies on roughly $156 billion in Chinese consumer goods including cell phones, laptops and toys. The U.S. also cut the tariff rate in half from 15% to 7.5% on levies it imposed in September on about $120 billion in Chinese products. In return, China committed to buying more U.S. agricultural goods and improve protections for\u00a0American technology and trade secrets.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe most important element of this deal is what didn’t happen: further tariffs,”\u00a0says Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. “The risk of more tariffs isn\u2019t going to materialize and that\u2019s the biggest gain for Americans.\u201d<\/p>\n
Consumers take tariff brunt\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
Trump\u2019s tariffs on Chinese products were fully passed on to U.S. consumers and corporations in all industries except steel, according to a\u00a0recent paper\u00a0by the National Bureau of Economic Research.<\/p>\n
Still, consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, has remained strong. Unemployment has fallen to a half-century low,\u00a0helping to offset a slowdown in manufacturing during the long-simmering trade dispute.<\/p>\n
“Consumers aren’t going to get relief out of this deal but they’ve still been spared,” says John Ham, associate advisor at New England Investment\u00a0and Retirement Group. “They haven’t felt the same pain that companies and farmers have faced.”<\/p>\n
The\u00a0deal, signed Wednesday at the White House, removes some uncertainties hanging over financial markets. A\u00a0new batch of tariffs is off the table for now. That means the trade spat between the world\u2019s two biggest economies over the past 18 months could have less of a drag on the global economy, economists say.<\/p>\n
The trade rift has shaved off roughly 0.5% of U.S. gross domestic product, according to Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Global growth is forecast to rise 2.5% this year, up 0.1 percentage point from a year ago as trade recovers, according to the World Bank\u2019s latest Global Economic Prospects report.<\/p>\n
Factory jobs are hurting<\/p>\n
To be sure, U.S. tariffs remain on about $370 billion of Chinese goods. That could further weigh on costs for American manufacturers that use Chinese components to assemble products, economists caution.<\/p>\n
The\u00a0tariffs in 2018 led to job losses in the manufacturing sector, according to a Federal Reserve report. And there are signs of lingering effects.\u00a0U.S. factory activity contracted\u00a0last month to\u00a0its lowest reading since June 2009, data from the Institute for Supply Management showed.<\/p>\n
Ham, of New England Investment\u00a0and Retirement Group, doesn’t expect an immediate rebound in manufacturing after the “Phase 1” deal, but at least some of the pain will stop. “Even a partial rollback in tariffs could help earnings this year,” he\u00a0says.<\/p>\n
There are other issues that still need to be addressed and it could take years before a “Phase 2” and “Phase 3” trade accord is met between the Washington and Beijing, experts say. Officials still have to hammer out details on enforcing the protection of intellectual property rights.<\/p>\n
China also has a history of making deals and failing to follow through, and this time may not be any different, experts say.<\/p>\n
\u201cThere\u2019s still a lot of ground to cover,\u201d says Lindsey Piegza, chief economist at Stifel.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Wall Street parses\u00a0trade details<\/p>\n
With volatility\u00a0expected to pick up on further trade talks, investors should consider rebalancing their portfolios after last year\u2019s strong stock market gains, some financial planners say.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cInvestors should take a long look at how much their stocks have appreciated over the past year to see whether that risk is still worth taking,\u201d\u00a0says Steve Frazier, president at Frazier Investment Management.<\/p>\n
Stocks pared gains on Wednesday as investors sorted through the trade details. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 90.55\u00a0points to close at 29,030.22, after climbing more than 200 points.\u00a0All three major averages hit intraday records.<\/p>\n
Major averages have risen on hopes that\u00a0a rollback in tariffs could help boost\u00a0corporate profits and business investment. But stocks briefly eased from records this week on concerns that some aspects of the trade deal were less than what Wall Street was anticipating.<\/p>\n
Investors were rattled Tuesday after a Bloomberg report suggested that U.S. tariffs could remain in place until after the U.S. presidential election. Then Trump said Wednesday that the U.S. will maintain tariffs on Chinese goods until a “Phase 2” deal is reached.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Trade blueprint<\/p>\n
Beyond China, the U.S. economy faces more challenges on trade that could make\u00a0goods more expensive for Americans, slowing the economy’s growth.<\/p>\n
Washington could slap duties on $60 billion worth of annual\u00a0European car and auto-parts exports.\u00a0The U.S. has also threatened to impose tariffs on $2.4 billion of French goods\u00a0in a dispute over the country\u2019s planned digital services tax.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Still, an accord with China bodes well for trade negotiations with other countries,\u00a0analysts and economists say.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cIs it the deal the U.S. wanted with China? No. But it’s a relief for the markets,” says Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital\u00a0Securities. “If we were able to crack China, then it will be a heck of a lot easier to deal with Europe.”<\/p>\n
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Americans Won\u2019t Get a Total Reprieve After China Trade Deal as Effects of Lost Factory Jobs, Pricier Goods Linger<\/p>\n
The government entered a deal with China that saw President Trump and his government agree to avoid further tariff imposition on Chinese goods. However, this deal does not affect much the tariffs that President Trump imposed in 2019. Although it is important to mention that the agreement includes a 50% cut in the tariff rate imposed on $120 billion worth of Chinese products in September of 2019. In microeconomics, the move to enact tariffs is for several reasons that the government feels will benefit its economy. These reasons include ensuring a low unemployment rate, protecting local infant industries, and consumers. However, the motive around President Trump’s tariff imposition is national security and the disregard for these other factors may have unmatched consequences. China, in its part, has retaliated imposing high tariffs on products from the USA as well. <\/p>\n
Consumers bore the weight of the Tariffs imposed on Chinese products in all sectors except steel according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. However, the government can support its claim by quoting the strong consumer spending and significantly low unemployment rates. This does not mean buyers are not suffering from the inconvenience of going for alternatives that may not so well fit their preferences. <\/p>\n
As mentioned earlier, the tariffs imposed on Chinese goods prior to the deal remain and stand at around $370 billion. This is a possible huge problem now and going forward for American manufacturers who rely on components from china in their assembly lines. Although the effects are not felt significantly yet, they are still lingering. There have been layoffs in the manufacturing industry since the imposition of these tariffs in June of 2018. The microeconomic effect felt in this case could mainly be from China retaliating and imposing as many tariffs on goods from the USA and curtailing its manufacturing efforts.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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