Types Of Probabilities

Types Of Probabilities

Probability is the possibility of an occasion to happen in which the results are given between 0% to 1% values of happening. When the degree of probability is high, then the event is more likely to happen; or when the sample series are longer, then the larger number of times an event is expected to happen. The two types of probabilities include Empirical and Theoretical. (Mood, Graybill, & Boes, 2001).

Empirical Probability

Empirical /posterior/ experimental/relative frequency Probability is the ratio between the estimated numbers of times an event takes place, based with the number of possible times it can happen after a trial in an actual experiment. It is estimated with observation and experience which has taken place repeatedly (Lefebvre, 2006). Empirical probability involves an inductive process that increase accuracy depending on the arrival of new data and most economist prefer it when making their decisions. Empirical Probability ratio is calculated as follows;

Number of times Event occurs

P (event) = Total number of observed occurrences

An Example of an Empirical probability

When one flips a coin 10 times and gets three heads, the empirical probability is 3 in 10 since it is unbiased meaning one result has a better likelihood to happen than the others. If it were theoretical probability, the results would be 5 in 10 since it is a fair or biased meaning each result has an equal chance of happening(Mood, Graybill, & Boes, 2001).

Theoretical Probability

Theoretical/Classical Probability of an event happening is based on the number of favorable ways that the event can happen, divided with the overall number of possible outcomes (Lefebvre, 2006).  The ratio of this probability of an event happening is calculated as follows;

Number of favorable outcomes

P (event) = Total number of possible outcomes

An Example of a theoretical probability

Having a box with 20 balls, 15 are blue, and 5 are red in color. What is the possibility of picking a blue ball? When one random picks a ball from the box the result can either be blue or red, therefore, having 15 blue ball and 5 red balls there are three times many blue balls as the red ones. Hence, the probability of picking a blue ball is;

Number of blue balls in the box = 15 = 3 = 0.75 =75%

P (blue ball) = Total number of the ball in the box 20 4

Conclusion

An empirical probability is derived from a set of variants with observed capable principle while the theoretical probability is composed of certain basic principles, facts and assumptions. In conclusion, the procedure of inferential statistics starts with one or more empirical results and is completed by comparing to the theoretical probability results.Reference

BIBLIOGRAPHY l 1033 Mood, A., Graybill, F., & Boes, D. (2001). Introduction to the Theory of Statistics. UK:

McGraw-Hill.

Lefebvre, M. (2006). Applied Probability and Statistics. United States of America: Springer.